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The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 3

Monday, August 3, 2023 - 5:50pm

A Weak Start To The Week

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Monday, August 3, 2023 - 10:42am

By TF

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Saturday, August 1, 2023 - 9:13pm

By Jim Quinn

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Sat, Aug 1, 2023 - 12:43pm

Painting The Monthly Charts

Fri, Jul 31, 2023 - 11:07am

By TF

105

The Old Jedi Mind Trick

Thu, Jul 30, 2023 - 10:43am

By TF

121

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Wednesday, July 29, 2023 - 6:00pm

We survived the fedlines as Chief Goon Powell confirmed again that The Fed will do whatever it takes for as long as it takes to keep the US economy afloat. As expected, however, there were no major policy change announcements. Those will come next time.

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Pre-Fedline Open Thread

It's going to be an interesting afternoon.

Wednesday, July 29, 2023 - 10:37am

By TF

103

It's July FOMC Day. Expect the Fedlines at 2:00 pm ET and a CGP presser at 2:30 ET. To kill the time between now and then, here's an open thread to discuss the possible outcomes.

Let's hope for the best and an extension of this great run that we're on. However, experience informs us to...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, July 28

Tuesday, July 28, 2023 - 6:00pm

What a crazy day! The Banks let us all know that the reports of their demise are somewhat premature. And now we await tomorrow's Fedlines and Powell presser.

For today, just a recap of the interesting events of the past 24 hours and a reminder to check out this post from ZH when you...

What now, boss? A New Normal?

Tuesday, July 28, 2023 - 9:00am

By Doctor J

As I was walking our doggie last evening, I passed by the neighbor’s place. They have a wrought iron gate and an Australian shepherd that loves to run out and say hello each day. I waited by the gate and while the dogs were chatting, the owner...

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By TF

Another significant milestone has been reached.

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What A Way To Start The Week

And what a time to be in the PMs!

Monday, July 27, 2023 - 9:49am

By TF

188

However, even with the new all-time highs in gold, it is just the start of another week...and it's going to be a long week with much more volatility (in both directions) than last week. So let's take a moment to celebrate the new ATHs but then let's get out collective heads screwed on straight...

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Sunday, July 26, 2023 - 11:05pm

By TF

129

Sabbatical or no, this historic event deserves its own thread.

It has been a long eight years...but here we are...with new ATHs in both front-month futures and spot XAU....

TFMR Podcast - Saturday, July 25

Saturday, July 25, 2023 - 11:40am

190

What a great week we just had! Take a few minutes to celebrate. And then please be sure to listen to this podcast as the week ahead is certain to include volatility in both directions.

Why? Not only for the slate of economic datapoints that includes Durable Goods and the first guess at...

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What a fun week we've had!

Friday, July 24, 2023 - 10:52am

By TF

121

Of...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, July 23

Thursday, July 23, 2023 - 5:04pm

110

It was a solid day for Comex gold but not so much for Comex silver and the mining shares. So now we head into Friday and await the weekly close, confident that the early week gains have been sufficient to paint pretty green candles onto the charts.

For today, more discussion of the...

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI